Friday, June 13, 2003
Tuesday, June 10, 2003
Sunday, June 08, 2003
The Mother Of All Posts
Part I: Gulf War II in retrospect
The second Gulf War was not marred by any of the possible problems I had predicted. I didn't say that any of these problems would definitely happen, I said that they might happen and should be discussed more. The reasons that none of these problems manifested is at the core of the situation today.
The war was a success. There were few civilian deaths, few military deaths, and no major damage to the Iraqi economic infrastructure that remained. More people died at Halabja than in Gulf War II. I think one thing that is over-emphasized by pundits is the role of US technological superiority in the victory in Iraq. What happened was not a victory of the much-hyped shock and awe, but a massive assault of highly-mobile well-trained soldiers and excellent combat recon, as well as unchallenged air superiority that allowed the Air Force and Navy to hit targets with inpunity. These combined to convince an already demoralized army that by and large did not like Saddam to forget about the fighting and return home. Those that didn't desert were handily defeated, as at Kharbala Pass before Baghdad.
Turkey was rebufffed in its desire to invade Kurdistan, and neither the Kurds nor the Shiites continue to be oppressed. Evidence of atrocities commited by Saddam emerged, including a children's prison and mass graves. Also, at no point did Iraq use chemical or biological weapons on the American soldiers or its own people. This brings us up to the post-war, where the next part will continue from.
Part I: Gulf War II in retrospect
The second Gulf War was not marred by any of the possible problems I had predicted. I didn't say that any of these problems would definitely happen, I said that they might happen and should be discussed more. The reasons that none of these problems manifested is at the core of the situation today.
The war was a success. There were few civilian deaths, few military deaths, and no major damage to the Iraqi economic infrastructure that remained. More people died at Halabja than in Gulf War II. I think one thing that is over-emphasized by pundits is the role of US technological superiority in the victory in Iraq. What happened was not a victory of the much-hyped shock and awe, but a massive assault of highly-mobile well-trained soldiers and excellent combat recon, as well as unchallenged air superiority that allowed the Air Force and Navy to hit targets with inpunity. These combined to convince an already demoralized army that by and large did not like Saddam to forget about the fighting and return home. Those that didn't desert were handily defeated, as at Kharbala Pass before Baghdad.
Turkey was rebufffed in its desire to invade Kurdistan, and neither the Kurds nor the Shiites continue to be oppressed. Evidence of atrocities commited by Saddam emerged, including a children's prison and mass graves. Also, at no point did Iraq use chemical or biological weapons on the American soldiers or its own people. This brings us up to the post-war, where the next part will continue from.
Friday, June 06, 2003
Requiem for an Editor:
I have just one question: who will Kaus hound now?
The morale Raines damaged will self-repair. But he will have to live with the sad fact that he made his beloved newspaper the punchline of a thousand cruel jokes. He left the paper in worse condition than he found it and positioned his successor to reap the glory that he dreamed was his.
I have just one question: who will Kaus hound now?
Thursday, June 05, 2003
Wednesday, June 04, 2003
Monday, June 02, 2003
Sunday, June 01, 2003
Saturday, May 31, 2003
Friday, May 30, 2003
Frontpage Update:
You may notice that I have added a link to Joseph Liebermann's presidential campaign. I am endorsing Liebermann in part because he is the only Democratic candidate who took a strong stand for Gulf War II. I am also endorsing him because he will not continue the fiscal irresponsibility of Bush. I believe Liebermann's personal social views on issues such as abortion are very conservative, but from his statements, I think he regards the government as not being a means to enforce personal beliefs. Liebermann also understands what it will take to win the war on terrorism, and I can trust him to be supportive of Israel. In 2004, the first year I will be able to vote, I hope to cast my vote for Joseph Liebermann.
You may notice that I have added a link to Joseph Liebermann's presidential campaign. I am endorsing Liebermann in part because he is the only Democratic candidate who took a strong stand for Gulf War II. I am also endorsing him because he will not continue the fiscal irresponsibility of Bush. I believe Liebermann's personal social views on issues such as abortion are very conservative, but from his statements, I think he regards the government as not being a means to enforce personal beliefs. Liebermann also understands what it will take to win the war on terrorism, and I can trust him to be supportive of Israel. In 2004, the first year I will be able to vote, I hope to cast my vote for Joseph Liebermann.
What is Sharon Doing?
A Theory
Haven't posted in a while, but you can expect more posts in the future. Here's my post, based on a comment I made on the IsraelInsider boards.
Assuming that Sharon doesn't believe the Road Map will lead to peace, here is one interpretation of Sharon's actions. I think he expects that the Palestinians will not follow the road map and crack down on terrorism. Sharon will make any temporary gesture that will appease Mazen, and when the PA does not stop the terrorism, he will declare that the Oslo Accords are dead, and that the PLO and all associated groups cannot or will not stop anti-Israel violence in exchange for independence. Therefore, it would be impossible to negotiate any more. The next step will be the reoccupation of the West Bank and the complete and total expulsion of the PLO. This may be Sharon's game, and I leave it to you to judge if it is a dangerous one.
A Theory
Haven't posted in a while, but you can expect more posts in the future. Here's my post, based on a comment I made on the IsraelInsider boards.
Assuming that Sharon doesn't believe the Road Map will lead to peace, here is one interpretation of Sharon's actions. I think he expects that the Palestinians will not follow the road map and crack down on terrorism. Sharon will make any temporary gesture that will appease Mazen, and when the PA does not stop the terrorism, he will declare that the Oslo Accords are dead, and that the PLO and all associated groups cannot or will not stop anti-Israel violence in exchange for independence. Therefore, it would be impossible to negotiate any more. The next step will be the reoccupation of the West Bank and the complete and total expulsion of the PLO. This may be Sharon's game, and I leave it to you to judge if it is a dangerous one.
Friday, May 16, 2003
The door to government largesse swings both ways for "small businesses."
Somehow I don't see this showing up in the Nation or the National Review anytime soon. Forget the Wall Street Journal. The only thing I want to add, is that in focusing on whether small businesses will benefit from Bush's tax cuts, Michael Kinsley ignores the big story: that MCT has duplicitly spent a decade bilking or lobbying for tax breaks from all sides of the aisle. Example:
Somehow I don't see this showing up in the Nation or the National Review anytime soon. Forget the Wall Street Journal. The only thing I want to add, is that in focusing on whether small businesses will benefit from Bush's tax cuts, Michael Kinsley ignores the big story: that MCT has duplicitly spent a decade bilking or lobbying for tax breaks from all sides of the aisle. Example:
October 1996. Republican vice presidential candidate Jack Kemp holds a rally at MCT. Ted Martinez hands him a document asserting that almost a third of MCT's payroll goes to paying federal, state, and local taxes. In his speech, Kemp makes it "half."
October 1995. Giant defense contractor TRW announces that it has won a $185 million contract from the Air Force, which it will share with two "small disadvantaged business" including MCT.
Matthew Miller makes a point about how Bush can be defeated that I hadn't gotten around to posting. (see the May 14 column in the archive) Choice bit:
I recommend reading the rest.
Just noting that sometime in the next couple of days I will post a retrospective on Gulf War II. In the meantime, you are well-advised to read Lt. Smash.
One key to Bush's electoral strategy is to sustain his image of "compassion." It's what pulls a chunk of pivotal independent voters his way, people who otherwise might not support Bush if they discovered the compassion was a hoax.
But Democrats are on their way to exposing this hoax. If the eventual Democratic nominee wants to cover today's 41 million uninsured, for example, and Bush wants to cover 6 million because he'd prefer to use the money to cut taxes for the well-off, that difference is stark and can be hammered home.
I recommend reading the rest.
Just noting that sometime in the next couple of days I will post a retrospective on Gulf War II. In the meantime, you are well-advised to read Lt. Smash.
Thursday, May 08, 2003
Monday, April 28, 2003
Monday, April 14, 2003
Thursday, April 10, 2003
